Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorker88
Even vaccinated people maybe protected only 6 months? So what’s the point.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nitecrawllerr
Even the vaccines found to mutate into new strains. Life wont be back to normal yet. Yr 2022 and beyond maybe...
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Although nobody can be sure about anything here, it is reasonable to be optimistic.
First, nobody said these vaccines provide immunity for only 6 months! What has been stated is that these vaccines provide immunity for
at least 6 months.
Experimental trials have started in 2020. First test inoculations were given 6 months ago. Therefore, experimental results, to date, demonstrate some immunity (the famous 95%) lasting for these 6 months. Next year, hopefully they will find that immunity is still lasting in those persons, and those 6 months will be updated to 12 months. Maybe longer, mayne not. As of today, experimental data include only 6 months of trials.
To give a point of comparison, the common flue vaccines last some 12 months but have only 60% effectiveness. Other vaccines can last several years, even the whole life, but each virus is different. Only decades of experimental trials can prove it or disprove it.
By the way, 95% is VERY high. For some vaccines, it is not higher than 50%, still they are useful. Better to have a partial protection than nothing. One example is the vaccine against cholera, not better than 50%.
About the mutations of the virus, every virus mutate, but this does not mean necessarily that mutated versions are not covered by a vaccine. It depends what mutates, and how extended are mutations. For the HIV, they gave up. All vaccines failed, because it mutates too much and all mutations are around. For flue, the vaccine is effective, and can be "programmed" every year for the new virus (that is why we have to repeat vaccination every winter). For many other viruses, mutations are not wide enough to diminish the effectiveness of the current vaccines.
The good news about these new mRNA vaccines is that they can be programmed very easily for a new mutation. A new strain appears and the old vaccine is not effective? In few weeks they can prepare a new vaccine for this, using the same technology (the problem is producing millions or billions of the new vaccine while you still have millions of previous ones in stock). The good impact of COVID is that it forced the development of this new technology, which may be effective also for other diseases. Future will tell.
In short, there is a hope we can resume regular travelling in 2021, probably with an international certificate of vaccinations, as we do with Yellow Fever. At least, this is what we hope, but it is not irrealistic.
PS: One more thing. Do not confuse the immunity after healing from disease with the immunity induced by a vaccine. The latter has another level of strength. A vaccine forces a very strong immune system reaction, specifically for some portion of the virus which has been selected on purpose. If one has had COVID, still he should be vaccinated.